[OPINION] Fubara cannot defeat Wike playing nice

December 13, 2023

I will say again that Nigerian politics is not for saints. Fubara cannot defeat an enemy like Wike playing nice or hoping that peace talks are fruitful. He may as well resign today and save himself the stress of having to be booted out.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is the most loved politician in Kano since the late Aminu Kano but it was hard to see him allowing Abdullahi Ganduje to run the state single-handedly.

Ganduje shortly after taking over from Kwankwaso as governor started to sever ties with Kwankwaso and the colossal Kwankwassiya movement via which he rode to the Kano state house. Ganduje was to everyone then, an easy going gentleman who didn’t have it in him to survive a Kwankwassiya onslaught and I remember in an article I wrote titled ‘Anything Can Happen, This Is Kano’ in 2015, I quoted Walter Annanberg- “The greatest power is political power”.

Ganduje went on to utilize the power at his disposal to woo converts, establish himself and seize the entire party machinery from Kwankwaso. When Nyesom Wike anointed Siminalayi Fubara as his successor in Rivers state, you felt he couldn’t have settled for anyone better. Wike was certainly not one to retire and relinquish his political structure to anyone and what better choice than this man who in just about every public outing, was always behind or practically bowing beside him.

Fubara looked like someone who would ask the FG to forward his state’s allocation to Wike for his blessings first. There have been several stories as to what actually started the Fubara/Wike crisis with one saying Wike was as high-handed as sending someone from Abuja to ‘observe’ state executive council meetings. Whatever the root cause may be however, the governor’s open challenge to ‘anyone’ who feels he has done any wrong to come out and tell Rivers people so indicates more than anything that his only sin may be refusal to be dictated to. The only reason adduced by Wike till date is that he doesn’t want the political structure in the state to be torn apart.

The swift response of the Rivers governor to a plot to impeach him by the state assembly was a surprise to many who had long written him off as too timid to go toe to toe with Wike. The state assembly building was bombed and law enforcement agents were ordered to shut out even the governor from the premises but the man along with his supporters on foot, bamboozled their way through amidst heavy tear gassing. The majority leader, Edison Ehie who was removed for being loyal to the governor to pave way for the governor’s impeachment was hurriedly installed as speaker by lawmakers loyal to the governor while Wike’s man Martins Amaewhule was impeached. In what has been interpreted as a move to instill fear in Wike loyalists and remind everyone who the boss in Rivers was, fake news was leaked to the press that he had sacked all his commissioners and suspended the Chief Judge. Fubara had let the world know emphatically that he wasn’t going to bend over for Wike.

But then this is a war not a battle and quite unlike Ganduje in Kano, Fubara has done practically nothing to consolidate. 27 state house members loyal to Wike out of an overall total of 32 decamping to the APC speaks volumes of that. There are no saints in politics and with the amount of resources at his disposal; appointments, contracts and of course money, Fubara should have wooed more than half of those 27 lawmakers as a first step to protecting his seat. Ganduje didn’t just stop at owning the state house, he ensured everyone that mattered in the party then was with him. He made Kano too hot for Kwankwaso to even visit as it was a common sight then to see armed thugs moving along with policemen.

Having lost his cash cow; Intels Nigeria Limited, I was among the first people to say Abubakar Atiku had to have financial backing from as high up as Aso Rock before Wike himself said so in one of his all-too-popular speeches. Reports from the PDP Presidential Primary in Abuja indicated that Atiku paid delegates $20,000 and that was the only amount higher than Wike’s $15000. Atiku may very easily say he is a businessman but if 237 people voted Wike at the PDP Primary, how did he source $3.5M for those votes?. Any discrepancy in government books is a tool that can be used to pile up pressure and demystify the enemy. As successful as Kwankwaso’s tenure was as governor, everyone was jolted by news that the EFCC was looking into allegations that the 44 LGAs in Kano were made to donate N70M each for his APC Primary Election.

I will say again that Nigerian politics is not for saints. Fubara cannot defeat an enemy like Wike playing nice or hoping that peace talks are fruitful. He may as well resign today and save himself the stress of having to be booted out. He can at the very least, act like Wike would if he was in his position-get the support of the state house of assembly that has the power to impeach him at all costs; everyone has a price. If Wike has no limit to his spending because he has managed to sell to President Tinubu that he is trying to make Rivers an APC state then Fubara can scream to high heavens that money is being looted in Abuja to fund the war against him. Wike would do just that.

Challenging the cross-carpeting of 27 lawmakers from the PDP to the APC in court would be an exercise in futility because the Nigerian constitution says they will not forfeit their seats if there is a division in the party. That clearly exists with 2 separate factions of state house of assembly leadership from PDP. To be honest, it would be a miracle for Fubara to stay afloat.

What is not in doubt is that such miracle would not happen if he doesn’t try to win over some of those lawmakers instead of warring them. He needs to learn from others that have fought and won these wars.

Umar Sa’ad Hassan is based in Kano