Wars come at a cost…financial, human, material, emotional and strategic costs. Invasions even more so.
At this time, the Nigerian state is actually very broke. We’ve been broke for over 5 years.
The Buhari APC regime frittered off the little we had, employed “ways and means” to create money (by simply printing the Naira with nothing backing it), borrowed massively from China and others dumb enough to lend to them, then proceeded to waste the borrowed funds.
They further created arbitrage in everything from exchange rates to petroleum products, killed the manufacturing sector, destroyed regional trade and mollycoddled a contrived internal security malaise!
The hapless economy simply went belly-up.
We don’t have money!
But a certain ruler believes we should invade the Republic of Niger!
Undoubtedly, the widespread of military rule in West Africa is worrying and disturbing. The military in government ALWAYS ends in tears for not only the country in question but her neighbours. But would the solution be to go to war with a sovereign country? Are there not other ways to resolve such?
Whichever way one looks at it, the invasion of Niger Republic would end in tears for Nigeria for the following reasons:
1. We do not have the means to prosecute a war at this time
2. The Nigerian military has been at war in the North-East for about 12yrs and really war-weary and depleted
3. The military has an archaic architecture, out-dated doctrines and totally unfit for modern warfare
4. The states in Northern Nigeria contiguous with Niger Republic are fraternal siblings of the Nigeriens. Research show that those from those states would NEVER support such military intervention
5. The Nigerien public somehow supports the removal of President Bazoum and have happily supported the military regime (this in itself, is disturbing)
6. The regime in Niamey is populist especially as they’ve taken on the French government head-on on the century-long exploitation of francophone Africa by the French! This is a most unassailable support and it’s a major factor in frustrating an invasion (think Ukraine and Russia, think Eritrea and Italy)
7. With the massive support from Niger Republic and Northern Nigeria, sending ground troops would be suicidal
8. From number 7 above, only air strikes would do so much to “pacify” the Nigerien people.
9. We have less than 45 combat aircrafts in the Nigerian Air Force and most are really obsolete. Again, the Nigeriens have anti-aircraft batteries too and wouldn’t just be admiring the NAF jets.
10. The governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Algeria have weighed-in to lend military support to Niger!
11. Russia is actively involved in the events in the Sahara and backs most of these regimes despite the presence of the US troops in Niger. A proxy war is afoot here and Russia would only be too happy to truncate our oil exports too to put pressure on world oil supply
12. Nigeria runs the risk of having Northern Nigeria annexed by the Republic of Niger actually…militarily, Nigeria is damn too weak at the moment!
My dear friends, wars ain’t a walk in the park! Serious countries set out years-long preparations for war but we want to go to war on a whim?
Have we even considered the supply chain of personnel and resources? Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) is required to power these military vehicles. Do we have sufficient quantities, are the depots close enough to the theatre?
We have NOTHING to gain invading another country and everything to lose!
We rather should go to war with the 1999 constitution of Nigeria and the corruption it stands for! We really should invade our disorganized institutions as INEC and throw out the legacy of insanity that has become king in Nigeria!
We have no moral authority or any business at all invading another country!
Remove the log in your eyes before considering the speck in the eyes of another!
We have nothing to gain in a war that’s got little to do with us!
